A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
