Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
